Russia–Belarus Joint Military Drills (Zapad 2025)

Background

• Zapad (meaning “West”) drills: Major Russia–Belarus military exercises, usually held every 4 years.

• 2025 edition: First Zapad since Russia–Ukraine conflict began in 2022. Runs until September 16, 2025.

Key Features of the Drills

• Involves armoured vehicles, helicopters, navy ships.

• Northern Fleet deployed to Barents Sea & Arctic Ocean.

• Exercises include aerial reconnaissance, missile strikes on ground targets, and coordination across land, sea, and air.

• Conducted partly in Belarus’s Grodno region, bordering Poland & Lithuania.

NATO & Regional Reactions

• Poland:

  • Accused Russia of drone incursions; scrambled jets with NATO allies.

  • Closed border with Belarus “until further notice”.

  • Deployed ~40,000 troops at border during Zapad.

  • PM Donald Tusk: Poland is closer to “open conflict” than any time since WWII.

• NATO Eastern flank (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia):

  • Heightened alert; fears escalation into broader confrontation.

• Moscow’s stance:

  • Calls exercises “planned, not aimed at anyone”.

  • Rejects claims of aggression.

Strategic Significance

1. For Russia & Belarus

   • Demonstrates military readiness amid prolonged Ukraine war.

   • Signals deterrence against NATO support to Ukraine.

   • Reinforces Russia–Belarus defence integration.

2. For NATO & EU

   • Seen as power projection near NATO borders.

   • Heightens security risks on eastern flank.

   • Raises escalation fears, especially with drone violations of Polish airspace.

3. For Global Security

   • Adds pressure on European security environment.

   • Arctic deployment indicates Russia’s intent to assert presence in Northern Sea Route & Arctic geopolitics.

   • Potential for accidental confrontations (drones, airspace violations).